Baseball Prospectus hosted a pre-game event at Dodger Stadium on September 15, and among the guest speakers was Hall of Famer and Dodger broadcaster Vin Scully...

This originally appeared on Baseball Prospectus' website on September 7, 2012

September 8, 2012

108 Stitches

The New Oriole Way

by Dan Evans

The Orioles’ storybook season added another amazing chapter on Thursday night, as the O’s pulled off a startling four-run comeback after blowing a five-run lead in the opener of their huge four-game series against the Yankees at Camden Yards. This is Baltimore's first meaningful baseball September in more than a decade, and on the night that the Orioles unveiled a statue of Hall of Famer Cal Ripken, Jr, they erupted for six home runs to move back into a tie for the American League East lead.

The Orioles have finished under .500 for 14 consecutive years and have lost 91 or more games in nine of the last 11 seasons, including each of the last six years. But if the season had ended yesterday, the Orioles would have been postseason bound, which represents a remarkable turnaround under General Manager Dan Duquette and Manager Buck Showalter. Credit also has to be given to former GM Andy MacPhail, who hired Showalter in 2010 and laid the groundwork for this team.

The Orioles’ record right now is impressive enough, but how the O’s have reached this point has been fascinating.

Defying the odds
Showalter, in his 14th season as a major-league manager, has done a masterful job. Always one of the best in the game at maximizing his roster’s talent, he is a Manager of the Year candidate (along with White Sox skipper Robin Ventura) given the Orioles' performance in the first 85 percent of the season. A stickler for detail, Showalter seems to be the right guy at the right time for an Oriole club trying to find its identify.

I first met Showalter during the 1992 season, when he was in his first year as the New York Yankees manager and I was the Assistant GM of the White Sox. It was after midnight, maybe two hours after a late-April night game at Comiskey Park, and my office phone rang with an internal Caller ID listing "visiting manager's office." It was Buck, and he asked me if I could help him, as a game played earlier that night by an upcoming Yankees opponent was being replayed on a satellite channel, and he wanted to watch it from the clubhouse. We were already taping the game ourselves, so I went over to the visitor's clubhouse and showed him how to view it.

After that late-night conversation, I knew his clubs would always be prepared.

Baltimore is just a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of pitching and offense. They rank ninth in the American League in runs scored, eighth in OPS, and seventh in slugging. Their staff ERA is seventh in the AL, and their 65 Quality Starts rank ninth in the league, third in the division, and below the league average of 69. Yes, their defense is improved to fifth-best in the AL, according to BP’s Defensive Efficiency, but nothing about their team stats suggest a surge to the Junior Circuit's third-best record.

That is what makes their return to relevance so impressive.

The Orioles enter play tonight with a 77-60 record, having won 10 of their last 13 games, yet the Pythagorean Expectation predicts a .484 winning percentage (66-70), That 79-percentage-point gap not only leads the majors in 2012, but is also the largest over-achievement by a club in at least three years.

The Orioles’ run differential is -16, and they are the only major-league team with a winning record and a negative figure in that category. If they sustain both through September, they’ll have achieved something historic, since it’s been 25 years since an American League team made the playoffs with a negative run differential. It worked out fairly well for the last club to do it: the 1987 Minnesota Twins, with a -20 Run Differential, were World Series champions. Only 11 teams have been able to post a winning record despite a negative run differential over the last 10 seasons, and just two made the playoffs (Arizona in 2007, San Diego in 2005).

Baltimore has baseball’s best won-loss record in one-run games (24-7) and are 12-2 in extra-inning games. Those numbers have a lot to do with their inexplicable climb to the top of the standings. In addition, they have the best record (31-22)against the AL East, and are one of five major-league teams that are at least seven games over .500 both on the road and at home.

How have they done it?
There has been a sense of urgency on the Orioles all season, and I’ve always found that to be a tremendous dynamic in a clubhouse. The mindset that losing expectations are a thing of the past has to come from the key decision makers. Duquette and Showalter did not have a white flag raised from the onset of the season.

It starts with roster management. No American League club has made as many moves as the Orioles in 2012. It’s not a result of injuries, since Baltimore’s disabled list placements have been around the league average. Only the Padres have more transactions this year, and their roster has been decimated by injuries. And those Orioles promotions were not without risk, as elevating Manny Machado from Double-A Bowie was not only unexpected but met with negative comments from many minor-league observers.

The Orioles have tinkered with their roster seemingly every day to give themselves what they felt was their best 25-man roster. That’s a strong message to send to the players about accountability and making every game count. I have been involved in situations like that in the past, and it affects everyone's thinking and keeps everyone on edge, knowing that nothing is taken for granted and that losing is no longer tolerated. The very core of a team's everyday baseball group feels it, and media and staff members with the team on a daily basis notice it also.

What the Orioles told their players with their roster activity is clear: they’re committed to giving Showalter and his talented field staff a full complement of players to compete against the tough daily grind of the American League East, and there are no games conceded on the schedule. Clubs frequently go into games undermanned, particularly in the bullpen or on the bench, and that can be a huge factor in close games.

That sense of urgency and willingness to exploit every edge partially explains how the Orioles have rebounded from a 10-game deficit on July 18, making up 10 games in the standings over a 45-day period.

I believe the Orioles' outstanding records in one-run and extra-inning games are also no coincidence. Duquette and his staff have given Showalter, an outstanding tactician, a full deck to work with as frequently as possible, and that has allowed their skipper to play match-up baseball in all those close games.

Baltimore has used 50 players, including 25 pitchers and 11 starting pitchers, over the course of the season. That’s a nightmare for their clubhouse staff and director of team travel, but it’s also an indication they have not limited their thinking to just those players on their 40-man roster—a frequent barrier for most clubs, since it entails some risk of losing players and going outside the comfort level of many team personnel. It’s about adding players like Nate McLouth, knowing that they aren’t the players they once were, but that they’re good enough to contribute to the 25-man roster. It’s about incremental improvement. Adding left-handers Randy Wolf and Joe Saunders suggested that the Orioles were determined to get outs in the final month of the season, and that they were not fully satisfied with their roster.

Another good call was the decision to retain their best prospects at the trade deadline, rather than make impulsive moves to fortify their roster. If they were going to make a run at the playoffs, it would not be at a prohibitive cost, potentially curtailing the club's future chances of success. It contributed to a positive vibe in the clubhouse too, sending the message that decision makers believed in their personnel.

But I think the key has been Showalter recognizing what his club’s strengths and weaknesses are and adjusting his own game accordingly. That’s a tough move for most veteran managers to make. Baltimore has relied on the long ball this year: only the Yankees have scored a higher percentage of their runs on homers than the Birds’ 47 percent, which is one of the highest percentages of the past decade.

As a result, Showalter doesn't give away outs. The Birds have swiped an MLB-low 44 bases and have attempted just 71 steals, the American League's second-lowest total. They have tried a double steal just once, and they don't squeeze. Only two AL clubs use the hit and run less often than Baltimore, and despite being the second-best team in baseball at converting attempted sacrifice bunts (88 percent), they don't bunt more than the average team. That is contrary to Showalter's tendencies of the past, which goes to show that he’s adapted his approach to suit his situation.

But Showalter's maturity as a manager was never more apparent than in the eighth inning on Thursday night, when Pedro Strop blew a five-run lead because of command issues. Considered a quick hook at times during his career, Showalter instead made a strong statement by sitting at the far home plate end of the dugout, keeping a calm demeanor as his young set-up guy experienced post-season type pressure for the first time in his career in front of a sold-out home crowd. Young players look to the manager in situations they have not encountered before, and Showalter's inaction was a positive statement, one that told his players he was not going to panic, suddenly change his ways, and give up on a guy who has been an instrumental cog in a pen that leads the league in saves.

Strop will likely be better off down the line because he knows the skipper believes in him. Is the pen flawed? Nearly all are, and the Orioles’ is no exception. With a number of different looks in their pen, the O’s have notched the most save opportunities, but only two AL clubs have blown more saves. Showalter’s relief staff has made the third-most appearances, as he consistently tries to match up arms with bats they can beat. Orioles relievers have entered games without a runner on base at the third-highest rate in the AL. Credit Duquette and his staff for recognizing Showalter's desire to play match-up for outs. The 25-man is best used when it reflects the manager's actual style, and theirs does.

What the Orioles have done is take on Showalter's personality. They are tenacious, unyielding, and focused. And their best players seem to be their leaders, which is always a big benefit.

With 25 games (13 home, 12 away) remaining on the schedule, including 12 against American League contenders (three vs. New York, six with Tampa Bay, three with Oakland), the Orioles' final four weeks won't be easy. In fact, Baseball Prospectus' Daily Playoff Odds predict 88 or 89 wins and give the club only an 18.5 percent chance of capturing the AL East and a 29.5 percent chance of nabbing one of the Wild Card spots. Of course, this weekend could make a big difference, since they are hosting the Yankees.

But for the Orioles to be in the playoff hunt in the month of September breathes life into a franchise and a fan base that has not had a playoff team since 1997. The Beltway could have two clubs in the playoffs, and absolutely no one predicted that before this season opened.

Baltimore is an outstanding baseball city and was an intimidating place to play when the O's were a contender. I remember my first playoff game there in 1983, when the White Sox club I was working for played the Orioles in the ALCS. Toward the end of batting practice, I was hanging around the cage with Charley Lau, a genius of a man who was Chicago’s hitting coach and had played for the Orioles.

I marveled at how the Memorial Stadium crowd had arrived en masse an hour before the first pitch, and Lau remarked, "This is about a long-standing passion for the Orioles and baseball. These people really know the game, and they woke up today wanting to be here." It was good to see all the orange in the capacity crowd last night.

Is the Orioles’ success good fortune or just a talented GM and manager squeezing everything out of a team? I'm not certain, but I think it’s a little bit of both. That success has made the Orioles one of the best stories of 2012.

Dan Evans is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Dan's other articles. You can contact Dan by clicking here

This appeared on Baseball Prospectus on August 31, 2012...

August 31, 2012

108 Stitches

The Importance of the Area Code Games

by Dan Evans

Nearly 600 of baseball's top amateur talent evaluators converged on historic Blair Field in Long Beach, California earlier this month for the 26th Annual Area Code Games. For the 240 high school players who gathered from all over the nation, it was the toughest job interview they had ever experienced.

"A player cannot attend the Area Code Games and hide," said UCLA Head Coach John Savage.

Several factors make the Area Code Games are my favorite amateur event of the summer. Economics don't play a role, because there is no participation fee, just travel expenses. Blair Field is a cavern, a great field whose dimensions (348'/387'/400'/387'/348'), combined with the usual marine layer, make it exceptionally pitcher-friendly. Only one MLB stadium has longer foul lines.

In addition, what makes the Area Code Games unique is that the participants play real seven- or nine-inning games without pitch counts or quirky rules. Evaluators love it because they see every player in the same environment. The action takes place in one game on one field at a time, unlike most other amateur events, where the players are spread out over a complex or an area.

"I have been coming to this for more than 20 years, and wouldn't miss it," an American League scouting director said during a break. "It is a critical stage for me, since it is near the end of the season, and I can see how they all compare. It is really the final time we get the whole draft class together before the next June draft. You get to see the best against the best, and it is on one field with all your scouts seeing the same game."

Bob Williams came up with the original idea for the Area Code Games, and he collaborated with Northern California scouts on a concept to bring together the top high school players to play against each other, using wood bats exclusively. Williams and the scouts knew this invitation and selection process would be special because it would separate the Area Code Games from anything that had been available to premier high school players to that point.

Future major-league All-Stars Fernando Vina and Jim Edmonds were among the pioneers in the first Area Code Games. From that first gathering in Lodi (CA), the goal of Williams and Major League Baseball was to expand the Area CodeGames on a national scale, and in 2008 ESPN acquired Area Code Baseball from Williams. It has been held at Blair Field for nearly two decades, after a brief stop in San Diego. Over the last 25 years, more than 450 Area Code Gamesparticipants have made it to the majors.

Imagine a stadium that, for six consecutive days and 12 hours per day, holds 400 major-league scouts, 180 college coaches, 75 agents, and a large media contingent. The games start at 8:30 AM, and the day's final game concludes around 9 PM.

The event is run flawlessly, as staff members like Andrew Drennen, Director of Area Code Baseball, work behind the scenes to make it seamless.

"I really enjoy the event," said Drennen, who just finished his ninth Area Codes. "The scouts and coaches are great to work with, and we try to make it as professional and comfortable as we can for the players and their families. Our goal is to make it a great experience for everyone involved."

Every scout or coach has his favorite spot to evaluate from. Some like to go behind the plate, while others sit down the foul lines, but one thing is pretty certain: wherever they sit the first day, they will likely migrate to the same area on each of the event's six days.

Eight MLB organizations sponsor the teams: Kansas City (Northwest region), Oakland (Northern California), Milwaukee (Southern California), Cincinnati (Four Corners region plus Hawaii), Texas (Texas and Louisiana), White Sox (a large group of states including North and South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kentucky), Yankees (Northeast and Mideast), and Washington (Southeast). Three of the staffs have been together for 12 or more years, with the top seniority going to the White Sox and Rangers, with 16 years each. Scouts from other organizations aid their competitors throughout the process. The White Sox have over 400 candidates from three tryouts in different regions in order to assemble their squad. The Brewers' Southern California scouting staff holds two separate, invite-only July tryouts in Santa Barbara, narrows the field to about 75, then makes its decisions after a mid-July workout.

"It is a year-round selection process, not a one- or two-day event," said Brewers' West Coast Scouting Supervisor Corey Rodriguez, whose Area Code staff has remained intact for a dozen years.  "It is truly a collaboration. (Brewers scouts) Dan Huston and Josh Belovsky do an incredible job assembling the candidates, constantly asking questions, and always examining whether the player fits for the July tryouts. Our scouts are on this the entire year, always gathering information. We owe it to the kids and the teams. It is a privilege to have the responsibility of selecting the squad from Southern California."

An American League scouting director said, "The process is what makes it work so well, because it is from the bottom up. The kids get evaluated by area scouts all over the nation over the course of the year, and they keep getting evaluated throughout the process. It is a big task to run these clubs, but we all benefit, and the sport actually benefits from the Area Codes."

Phillies Assistant General Manager/Amateur Scouting Marti Wolever, who has selected Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels, among others, in his 11 years at the helm, commented, "I love the Area Code Games because of the format, the level of play, the fact that I get to watch every game with my staff, and I get to know that group of players so well in one week. Plus, they take infield every day, so I walk away from Long Beach with a much better idea of the upcoming draft talent."

One of MLB's top scouting directors said, "My favorite aspect is that it is the fairest evaluation period of the scouting year, because economics are not an issue. No one is prevented from participating because of cost. It is all about talent and tools. A lot of really great players have been on this field, and some likely could not have attended if fees were charged like all the other events."

And a veteran MLB scouting director stated, "I view the Area Code Games as the first step in a 10-month interview process. I'll debate these players with my staff the whole time, but I find that I point back to what guys did at Long Beach frequently during that process."

Savage, one of the best talent evaluators and also a tireless worker, went into more depth. "I am a huge fan of the Area Codes, as I like how they replicate actual games. It's not a showcase. It is fun to see one of the best pitchers face one of the best hitters and see who wins and why. You also see the speed of the game at the highest level all summer. I watch for six days and like to see players' energy levels, how they handle failure, whether they like to play the game. Plus, there are no life preservers here. You have to figure it out if you struggle. Some kids come here and go oh-for-the-week, and I want to see how they handle it, whether their energy level declines, and whether it gets the best of him."

Most of the players experience some sort of adversity at Blair Field.

One scouting director observed, "Most players struggle here because it is the best level of competition they have ever faced, they are playing every day, and there is a lot of scrutiny in the stands. Hundreds of radar guns and stop watches and notepads. That first pitch by a kid has about 200 or more radar guns elevated. It is intimidating for most players. Many of them have never really had that much failure before they come here, and then they get humbled. I like to see how they handle adversity. I have seen guys cry in the dugout because they are devastated, and know those are kids who likely aren't ready for pro ball."

An American League scouting director said, "I remember one year when Ryan Howard was here, and he struck out in something like 14 of his 16 plate appearances. It showed that he needed to get more reps in college, but I saw his potential power and kept an eye on him as a result. I remember turning in his present and future power grades and realizing that they were as big a gap as I had ever written. He just wasn't ready out of high school."

"I want to see who is going to fight through the tough times, the at bats where they are overmatched or the innings where they are backing up bases and not able to throw strikes," one of the college game's winningest coaches told me. "I find out a lot about kids here at Long Beach. Funny how the kids who figure it out here seem to be the ones I see in the big leagues."

Toronto Blue Jays scout Blake Crosby has a unique perspective of the Area Code Games, since his father, Ed, a former big leaguer and one of the game's best scouts for decades, was based on the West Coast, while his brother, Bobby, played seven years in the majors and was the American League's Rookie of the Year in 2004.

"The Area Code Games were one of the highlights of the summer for me when I was a boy," said Crosby, 27. "My Dad would take my brother and I every day, and back then, Topps was a sponsor of the event. Every time I got something from the concession stand for my Dad or one of his scout friends, that person would give me one of the packs of cards they got in their goodie bag. I would end up with a whole bunch of cards when the week was over. The scouts called me 'Soda Man.'"

Neither Blake nor Bobby Crosby made the Area Code squad, and for Blake, who was on a great La Quinta HS team that included future first-rounders Ian Kennedy and Ian Stewart, it was an awakening.

"I knew that I wasn't an upper tier draft when I didn't make the team," Crosby, one of the great young scouts in the game, recalled. "I was so disappointed. But it was a great honor to play in front of so many scouts at the tryout at Angel Stadium, since many of the scouts were people I had known my whole life."

"I have so much respect for what they go through at Blair Field," said Crosby, who went on to play at Sacramento State, was drafted by the Athletics in 2009, and now has the Four Corners as his territory. "It is the first big step of their baseball career, and the first time they know that everyone is watching every single thing that you do on the baseball field for six days."

Sometimes, players make a name for themselves in Long Beach.

"[Giancarlo] Stanton is an example of a player who really benefited from these games," an American League scouting director reflected. "A lot of people thought he would play football, and he did not have as much exposure coming into the Area Codes because he was playing a couple of sports. He came here, and I remember being stunned at his power, just stunned. Stanton went from being an interesting guy to being on everyone's radar, and the Marlins made a great pick nine months later."

When I canvassed a number of scouts and coaches about more recent players who benefited from the Area Code Games, one name kept coming up: Charlie Tilson, a kid from New Trier High School in the suburbs north of Chicago who burst on the scene in 2010.

A left-handed hitting center fielder, Tilson was cut from the White Sox team after his sophomore year but got big news while playing an American Legion game a year later.

"I was playing in an American Legion game, and my father, who was at the game, got a call from White Sox scout Dan Durst, notifying me that I had made the Area Code Team," said Tilson. "My Dad told my coach after the next inning, and when my coach relayed the news, it was the most excited baseball moment I had ever experienced. Looking back, it was a big step in my playing career."

But there was a little problem. Joe and Maggie Tilson had already booked a family vacation to Europe during that period.

"My parents had scheduled the trip before I made the team, and they were incredible to allow me to forgo it and instead go to Long Beach. I am so thankful for their decision," said Tilson.

"I had known (White Sox scout) Dan Durst for years, and he gave me great advice before the event," said Tilson. "He told me this was a rare opportunity to showcase my ability on the biggest stage, that it might be the best shot I may ever get, and to seize the moment. He said that kids from our area don't get seen as often or by as many scouts. He knew my skills and told me that I needed to bring my high-energy game."

Tilson listened well, because he played as if his car was double-parked outside the stadium the entire week, displaying bat and speed tools that stood out throughout the week.

"I was real nervous during the practice game, because it was easily the best level of baseball that I had ever been involved in. A big step up for me. Legion ball, high school ball was not the same stage. Anybody who participates feels it. But I had to take advantage of that opportunity, as I didn't want to get that chance and have it slip away. I decided I was going to give it everything I had and let them decide if I could play and not hold anything back," said Tilson.

He came to the Area Codes with a scholarship to the University of Illinois, but the week—actually one particular plate appearance at Blair Field—changed his baseball life.

"I had a 2-0 count, and I remembered that Dan (Durst) had told us to look for opportunities to drive a fastball when we had first reported to California," recalled Tilson. "So I did, and was lucky to get a ball on the inner half and, sure enough, I hit it really good, but didn't think it was out because Blair Field is so big. I just took off and ran as fast as I could. I think I was at second base when I realized it was out. Might have been the fastest time ever recorded on a homer. From that point forward in Long Beach, it was crazy."

Tilson's father and brother were in Ireland and were following the game off the Area Codes' GameCast on a computer, so they knew what had happened.

"My Dad and brother apparently were jumping all over the place," said Tilson.

It was the only home run hit in that entire week at Blair Field, and Tilson was selected 79th overall by the St Louis Cardinals the following June with their second selection and signed for $1.275 million.

This year's Games featured more offense than I can remember seeing before, as seven balls were hit out of Blair Field. For the first time I had ever attended games in Long Beach, there was no marine layer, and the heat, combined with the wind blowing out, led to more offense. I'll discuss that, along with some of the players in the event, in my next column.

But one thing is certain—everyone in attendance saw some of Major League Baseball's future stars. Over the last 10 years, every high school player selected in the first round of the amateur draft has played Area Code Baseball.

That's why I sit in the same spot every year at Blair Field, right behind the plate.

Dan Evans is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Dan's other articles. You can contact Dan by clicking here

 10 c

This appeared for Baseball Prospectus on August 22, 2012...

August 22, 2012

The Lineup Card

Nine Memorable Late-Season Call-Ups

by Baseball Prospectus

​1. Bob Hazle
With a stat line of .403/.477/.649 over the final third of the season after a late July promotion, arguably no position player has ever impacted a pennant race like Bob "Hurricane" Hazle did with the eventual world champion Milwaukee Braves.

A 26-year old left-handed-hitting outfielder, Hazle had a brief stint with the Cincinnati Reds in 1955, and was hitting .279 at the Braves' Wichita affiliate when recalled. Manager Fred Haney shifted eventual MVP Hank Aaron from right field to center field after regular center fielder Bill Bruton suffered a season-ending injury in mid-July. The club, after missing out on the 1956 NL title to Brooklyn by a single game, was in the midst of a tight pennant race again; five teams were within five games of the lead on July 28. Haney had been tinkering with his lineup in the preceding two weeks, shifting All-Star catcher Del Crandall to right field for four starts, while losing Aaron and Andy Pafko for five games each due to injury.

Milwaukee trailed St. Louis by percentage points for the NL lead on the day Hazle debuted, July 29, and two weeks later, the race was essentially over. Inserted into the lineup's sixth spot on July 31, Hazle hit .586 (17-for-29) as the club won 10 straight games from August 4-15 and amazingly picked up nine games over a nine-game stretch as the formerly first place Cardinals lost nine in a row.

Hazle, using former teammate Chuck Tanner’s bats, was 34 for his first 67 (.507) and batted .417/.549/.789 with 10 multi-hit games in 19 August starts as the Braves surged to a 38-18 record in their final 56 games with a run differential of +103. Hurricane Hazle started 37 of those games, and despite only playing the final third of season, had a 1.9 WARP.

The Braves, in the midst of an eight-year stretch where they finished first or second seven times, went on to capture their franchise's first World Series in 43 years—and its only one in Milwaukee—by defeating the New York Yankees in seven games. Hazle started four of the seven games and had two hits in the Fall Classic's deciding game before a crowd of over 61,000 at Yankee Stadium.

For his extraordinary contribution and impact on the NL pennant, Hazel finished fourth in Rookie of the Year balloting, even garnering one first-place vote. Sadly, Hazle's luck turned rotten the following year, as two beanballs and an ankle injury significantly limited his production, and he was traded in May of 1958 to the Tigers. He never played in the majors again; a few years later, he retired at age 31.

"I have been in professional baseball for over 60 years and never saw anyone have two months like Bob Hazle," Crandall said at a recent SABR meeting in Los Angeles. "It was really amazing, as it seemed like he got two or three big hits every night. It's my favorite year in baseball, as Braves fans supported us so incredibly." (Milwaukee, despite a population of approximately 750,000, led the National League in attendance with 2.2 million fans, averaging 28,403.) —Dan Evans

2. Fernando Valenzuela
In September 1980, the Dodgers brought up a chubby 19-year-old left-hander whom they had found in a Mexican farming community of 150 people called Etchohuaquila just over a year before: Fernando Valenzuela. Armed with a screwball taught to him by Dodger reliever Bobby Castillo, the young southpaw led the hitter-friendly Texas League in strikeouts (162) during his first full season of professional baseball, going 13-9 with a 3.10 ERA and 8.4 strikeouts per nine for Double-A San Antonio. He debuted on September 15 for a Dodger team that was running neck-and-neck with the Astros, and yielded two unearned runs in a two-inning stint of a 9-0 blowout.

He was just getting started. Over the next two and a half weeks, Valenzuela would make nine more appearances and throw 15 2/3 scoreless innings, with 15 strikeouts and just 12 baserunners. He notched one save and two wins in relief, the second of which came at the outset of a season-ending three-game series against Houston—a must-win series for the Dodgers, who entered trailing by three games. They won all three, and wound up tied with the Astros at 92-70, necessitating a one-game playoff.

As legend goes, Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda considered starting the rookie in the tiebreaker, but instead he turned to Dave Goltz, a former 20-game winner who had proven to be a free-agent bust, coming in with a 7-10 record and a 4.28ERA (an 82 ERA+). To be fair, Goltz had reeled off five quality starts out of six in September and October en route to a 2.56 ERA for the month. Alas, he got his ass handed to him by the Astros, yielding eight hits and four runs in three innings before being replaced by a pinch-hitter. Valenzuela did pitch a scoreless sixth and seventh inning, but the Dodgers lost 7-1. The following year would be a different story, however; on Opening Day, Valenzuela replaced scratched starter Jerry Reuss and threw a five-hit shutout against the Astros. He would go on to throw seven complete games and five shutouts in his first eight starts—good for a 0.50 ERA—as Fernandomania swept the baseball world, and ultimately helped the Dodgers to a world championship in the strike-torn 1981 season. —Jay Jaffe

3. Bob Milacki
I remember getting Bob Milacki’s 1989 Topps baseball card, looking at the back and getting really, really excited. I wasn’t even an Orioles fan, but who wouldn’t get excited about a guy who went 2-0 in three starts with a 0.72 ERA with a complete game shutout in 1988?! Based on that baseball card, and solely on that baseball card, 10-year old me predicted incredible things for the 23-year-old September callup for one of the worst teams in baseball history (the Orioles started 1988 0-21).

What kind of impact did he have? Well, he did beat the Tigers twice and the Yankees once, and they were in a dogfight for the AL East (indeed, the Tigers would finish just a game behind the Red Sox). But more importantly, as far as I’m concerned, is that it taught me my first lesson in small sample sizes. You will be shocked to learn, as I was, that Milacki did not go on to superduperstardom. Instead, he pitched 243 innings the next year, averaging around 102 pitches per start. redictably, his shoulder started to bother him in 1990, and he never threw more than 200 innings or had an ERA+ over 100 again (except for a 16-inning stint in 1993). So while September is a nice time to dream on prospects, be careful out there: Guys are going to get only a few PAs or a few IP to make an impression, and a lot of the time they're going to do it against other September callups who are way worse than Milacki. —Michael Bates

4. Marty Bystrom
The Phillies had gone through an exciting yet frustrating four-year stretch from 1976-79. They qualified for the postseason for the first time since 1950 when they won the National League East title in 1976 but would suffer the first of three consecutive NLCS losses, falling to the Reds in '76, then the Dodgers the next two seasons. In 1979, the Phillies watched while the intrastate rival Pirates won the World Series, a crown that had eluded Philadelphia since 1883.

Thus, the Phillies were hungrier than ever in 1980, when then the NL East featured a tight three-race at the start of September; the Pirates held a half-game lead on the Phillies and Expos. Then up came a right-hander from Triple-A Oklahoma City named Marty Bystrom. The 22-year-old made his major-league debut with one perfect relief inning at Dodger Stadium on Sept. 7. Three days later, he threw a five-hit shutout against the Mets at Shea Stadium and went on to win all five September starts while posting a 1.50 ERA. The Phillies won the division title on the penultimate day of the season, then beat the Astros in the NLCS and the Royals in the World Series for their first world championship. Bystrom wasn't a major factor in the postseason, making two starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings. His career had already reached its zenith, too; he was plagued by arm problems and finished his career with a 29-26 record and 4.26 ERA in parts of six seasons. However, Bystrom had an unforgettable September in 1980, and the Phillies almost certainly wouldn't have won their first World Series trophy without him. —John Perrotto

5. Gregg Jefferies
He finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year voting. That may not sound like much, but based on the fact that Gregg Jefferies didn’t make his debut until August 28, it’s pretty impressive. The Mets were in first place, well on their way to their second division title in three years, when Jefferies joined the lineup. His run over the final 32 games of the season were epic. And who knows, had he not finished 3-for-21, maybe Jefferies would have been higher on a RotY list that included winner Chris Sabo, Mark Grace and Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar.

But really, the last month of 1988 was about Jefferies and the Mets. In his first 22 games, Jefferies hit .364/.400/.705. The Mets closed strong, going 24-8 after Jefferies was added, but they lost to the Dodgers in the NLCS.

Not surprisingly, the expectations for Jefferies were through the roof based on his extended trial, and he never matched that run again. In his first full season, the switch-hitter played in 141 games, posting a 706 OPS and finishing third in the Rookie of the year race, making him the only player to receive Rookie of the Year votes in consecutive seasons. —Mike Ferrin

6. Jaret Wright
Had Jose Mesa nailed down the save in the ninth inning of Game Seven in the 1997 World Series, Jaret Wright's name would still be spoken in hushed, reverential tones around Cleveland. Wright started that Game Seven on short rest over a fully-rested Charles Nagy... only to watch Nagy surrender Edgar Renteria's game-winning hit in the 11^th. But for a 17-year-old Indians fan living in a (still) championship-starved town, Wright made it fun getting there. He was young, cocky, and 21. He was everything that Charles Nagy—who always "looked scared" on the mound—wasn't. Wright looked like the ever-elusive "ace" for whom Cleveland ached.

What gets lost in the aftermath of Game Seven was how much Wright, being a good, if slightly lucky (.261 BABIP), starter meant to the Indians rotation that summer. When he debuted in late June, the Indians, so invincible in '95 and '96, were treading water at 38-33, thankful to be in a weak AL Central. Past Nagy and 38-year-old Orel Hershiser, who provided steady, but mostly unspectacular, results, there was what remained of Jack McDowell's career, and... well, Chad Ogeastarted Games Two and Six of the World Series that year. Wright was a gift from the baseball gods: an alpha male in a town with an inferiority complex on a team that almost had to turn to Albie Lopez. And when Wright single-handedly (OK, not really) beat the Yankees in the ALDS, there was a feeling that from nowhere, a savior had arrived.

Jaret Wright never quite did turn into what we fantasized he might be, but for a midseason callup, he made 1997 so much fun that the heartbreak was that much deeper at the end. —Russell A. Carleton

7. Salomon Torres
Trevor Wilson and Bud Black started the second and third games of the 1993 season for the Giants, but in August, both pitchers were injured and unavailable. So the Giants called up Salomon Torres, a 21-year-old Dominican who would be named the 22^nd-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America a few months later. Torres was slight and slender, and he had thrown 189 innings already that season when he got the call, just in time to assure that he would be eligible for the postseason. That sounds like a lot of innings to us these days, but Torres had actually thrown 210 innings in his first year of pro ball, at age 19. Regardless, if he was gassed it didn’t immediately show. He struck out six in seven innings to get a win in his first big-league start, on Aug. 29. Then he went eight innings to win his second, and by Sept. 20, he had a 2.89ERA in four starts. He would make four more, though, clearing the fourth inning in just one of them.

Going into the final day of the season, Dusty Baker tapped Torres to pitch a do-or-die game that would determine whether a 104-win Giants team would get a playoff or whether a 103-win Giants team would go home. By this point, Torres had thrown 230 innings. The final start came on just three days' rest. Torres was terrible, and the Giants lost big to the Dodgers. It seems to me that game was the toughest loss the Giants suffered between the last game of 1962 and the penultimate game of 2002. And it took a decade before Torres had any sort of useful career again, as a reliever in his old age. Giants fans may debate who should have started that game, but the truth is probably that there was no good option. This story isn’t really about a good decision or a bad decision; it’s about how hard baseball makes you work to win, or lose, anything in this stupid game. —Sam Miller

8. Francisco Rodriguez
Before there was David Price sneaking onto a post-season roster, there was a 20-year-old kid dubbed "K-Rod." Francisco Rodriguez's career as a starter was felled due to elbow and shoulder injuries, so he switched to relief in 2002 and blazed through 83 1/3 innings of relief work between Double- and Triple-A. 

At the major-league level, the Angels were in the midst of a pennant race, but soon injuries took their toll on the bullpen, and Anaheim was scrambling to find a bridge to closer Troy Percival. Rodriguez got the call and made his major-league debut against first-place Oakland on Sept. 18. He saw action in four more regular-season contests, tossing 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball and stating his case for a spot on the Angels' post-season roster.

Of course, there's the rule in order to be eligible for the postseason, a player must be on the major-league roster by Aug. 31. However, manager Mike Scioscia could thank his lucky stars that there is a loophole that allows for those who aren't on the roster prior to Aug. 31 to take the place of an injured player. Rodriguez made the cut, and after allowing two runs in his first appearance against the Yankees in Game One of the ALDS, he looked almost unhittable until Game Six of the World Series against the Giants. K-Rod carved hitters up with his heater and curve, striking out 28 hitters in just 18 2/3 October innings while allowing just five runs, five walks, and 10 hits.

The Angels won their first, and only, World Series title on the back of Rodriguez's electric arm and some timely hitting. K-Rod's 2002 heroics helped him to break camp with Anaheim in 2003, though he remained in Percival's shadow as a deadly set-up man until he got his first chance to slam the door in 2005. —Stephani Bee

9. David Price
The top prospect in all of baseball, David Price, came up at the tail end of the 2008 season. The Rays had a set rotation at the time and therefore had no need for another starter, even one of Price's pedigree. (He did start two games in September, but he also relieved in three.) That freed Price up to come out of the bullpen in important points in the game. Which he did. He made his post-season debut against Boston, getting Jacoby Ellsbury to line to left field to end the Rays' 2-0 Game One win. He got the win in Tampa's Game Two extra-inning win, keeping the game tied in the 11^th inning so the Rays' offense could win it in the bottom of the inning. Which they did.

But Price's signature moment came in Game Seven of the ALCS against Boston. The Red Sox had come back from a three-games-to-one deficit to tie the series. In the top of the eighth inning of Game Seven, the Rays were ahead 3-1. Indeed, the Red Sox had amassed only two hits off Rays pitching, one a Dustin Pedroia solo homer. With starter Matt Garza still in, Alex Cora reached on an error. Garza was taken out and a series of pitchers followed, the end result of which was the Red Sox loading the bases with two outs. Down two runs, a single could have tied the game and an extra-base hit could have given the Red Sox the lead. Left-hand hitting J.D. Drew was up. David Price was called in from the pen. He struck Drew out, ending the threat and, effectively, the Red Sox' season.

Price pitched twice in the World Series against Philadelphia. He threw 2 1/3 innings in the Rays' Game Two win and an inning in their Game Five loss. In the end, the Rays lost the series, but they wouldn't have made it that far without the electric pitching of David Price. —Matthew Kory

 9 com

A Special Night

I attended last night's Giants/Dodgers game at Dodger Stadium, and it was one of those nights that you never forget, but for me it was more than just the game itself.

The two young southpaw starters, Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, provided a great duel, in fact it was the first time in the Live Ball era that opposing starting pitchers worked at least eight innings, did not walk a batter, and struck out at least 10 hitters. Amazing that has not happened since the Babe, actually almost unbelievable.

Saw a bunch of old friends (Steve Garvey, Sweet Lou Johnson, Tim Leary, Eric Karros, Paul Loduca), some former fellow staffers, and Hall of Famers Jamie Jarrin and Vin Scully over the course of the night. It was nice to catch up with so many people and the atmosphere at Dodger Stadium was really terrific because under new management it is becoming a fun place to attend games again along with a half-game separating the two clubs before the first and the final pitch.

What truly made it special for me was just hanging out with our oldest daughter, Sarah, at the ballpark. 



Sarah with Dennis Haysbert after last night's ballgame

Sarah's 22, just a semester away from being a graduate from the University of Colorado at Boulder with a double major of Communication and Political Science with an emphasis in Digital Media. She just landed a potentially great internship that could be really special, and I am so darn proud of her.

But the fun part was I could just go to the game with Sarah, have a five-hour conversation with her in an environment that I so enjoy, a crowded ballpark, and find out that my little girl is doing so darn well and about to plunge into the world with goals and dreams that might be ambitious and youthful, but ones that are real and honest to the core. I introduced her to people that she did not know at the ballpark, and she was reintroduced to others who knew her when she was a pre-teen and just trying to figure out the real world before high school.

I realize that I am lucky to have the opportunity to spend that kind of time with Sarah, because so many parents and children, for whatever reason, just don't have that type of relationship. Ours is different, as we spent two full days together in her car over the weekend as we drove back from Boulder to Pasadena, and it was a joy. Visiting the Four Corners Monument and cruising throughout the Southwest was fun, unscripted, and a learning experience too.

I'll look back at last night as more than just a great game that I was lucky enough to watch in-person. What made it really special is that it was a night with my daughter AND it happened to be at the ballpark.

I'm a lucky guy.

The Trade Deadline

This is my first column from Baseball Prospectus...it hit the website July 30, 2012

July 30, 2012

108 Stitches

Pulling Back the Curtain on the Trade Deadline

by Dan Evans

As we announced earlier this month, former Los Angeles Dodgers GM, major-league executive, and player agent Dan Evans has joined Baseball Prospectus as a regular contributor. In his first article, he explains what the trade deadline is like from a general manager's perspective. Dan will be answering your questions in his chat this Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET, so submit your questions now.


Tension? Absolutely. Anxiety? Sure. Pressure? Without a doubt. Enjoyment? No question.

Tuesday's MLB trade deadline is unlike any other time of the year, as it affects more people in the sport than any other event over the course of a season. By late July, everyone in the game has settled into a nice daily routine after spending the last several months and about two-thirds of the season together. Then the deadline arrives to disrupt the routine. Players, field staff, front office personnel, scouts, media, and minor-league franchises have no choice but to adjust. You you can feel its approach in everything that you do. And I mean everything.

The deadline seems to take on mythic proportions, but for the people who make the big decisions for each major-league club, it is the very best time of the year. It's an opportunity to impact your club at a critical stage, whether you are a buyer or a seller.

The Decision
In many organizations, deciding where the team stands at the deadline is the most difficult part of the process. There are 17 teams within five games of a playoff berth today, and herein lies the tough call. Are we a buyer or a seller? This conversation isn't comfortable, as it requires a sit-down with ownership about where you are as a franchise. This is a critical phase, since you need to come clean and then find out what direction ownership wants to take. If you are the general manager, it also is a job review of sorts, since your work is under inspection. This chat requires some preparation, because you have to go into the meeting with a plan. For some GMs in fragile stages of their contracts, it can be the beginning of the end of their employment.

Everyone likes to talk about what you're looking to add as a contender, but the other path is the much more difficult one. If you are one of the 13 or so clubs who woke up today with little or no chance to play in the postseason, you have to evaluate who is part of your nucleus for the following year and beyond and whom you might consider moving to try to contend in the future. This is where your scouts and minor-league staff become critical decision makers if you're doing it right. If they can evaluate well and are realistic about your personnel, you can make shrewd moves. If not, two years later you'll still be waiting for guys to get out of Double-A. It is extremely tough to communicate with your staff if you are going to change course, but if there is a distinct plan, they will be part of the solution, not the problem.

If ownership believes in your plan, the decision can be served to different degrees. How much are you willing to do, and at what cost? Every club has its own unique dynamics. As in every business, there are budgets that have to be analyzed. A component of the process seldom publicized is the marketing department's attendance projections for the final third of the season. Remember, NFL camps are opening, and the battle for the entertainment dollar comes into play in many markets. If you tell your fans that you're out, ticket sales and group buys will slow, and the media will favor other franchises when it starts making decisions about which sports are more relevant. There is also the issue of being in a two-team market, which I experienced for many years in Chicago and Los Angeles. You definitely are aware of what the other club in your market is doing and how your deadline decisions will be perceived.

Buying isn’t always about bolstering a particular position, as sometimes you are more interested in adding experience or character to your club, somebody who has played in the postseason and would bring a stabilizing influence. I did that in 2003 when I traded for Robin Ventura, whom I knew extremely well from my days with the White Sox and whom I thought would improve a Dodger club that had not been to the postseason in nearly a decade. His contribution to the clubhouse was enormous and immediate.

A great talent evaluator told me early in my career that if you are focusing on bringing in a starting pitcher, make sure the guy has been there before, because it is a tough task to ask a starter to take on that type of pressure if he hasn't already experienced it. We added Tim Belcher one year with the White Sox because he had post-season experience and great character, and he was extremely valuable to our club throughout that run. I brought in James Baldwin when I was with the Dodgers because I knew what a great competitor he was, having been with him for years with the White Sox.

Like most everything, deadline decisions often come down to money. If you can assume a player's salary, you don't have to pay as much in terms of prospects, and you can remain in talks longer. But if you're limited by your budget, the other club will usually keep you in play but demand a pricey return. I can tell you from experience that you sleep much better as a buyer with budget room than without.

The Process
This evaluation process leading up to the deadline truly begins in spring training, when the better organizations are already targeting players who might be available in the upcoming months. As a scout, you spend a little bit more time evaluating those guys and listening with a different filter. When I was a special assistant, I always made a list in February and set up my first-half schedule with the players on it in mind, having to anticipate who might come up in a conversation. You might watch a spring training game with July in mind.

Here is where the field staff is important in the process. You have to know what they think are their club's weaknesses and what areas they would like to improve. Keep in mind that they’re the ones really filling out the lineup card and making substitutions. If you bring in a complementary player or a reliever, you have to know how he will be used, because that can alter how the candidate fits into your scheme.

Once you decide which direction your club is headed, you have to review which teams are a better fit from your perspective, and the sooner the better. Many conversations between clubs take place before or during the All-Star Gameevents. Some teams are ready to go early, while others sit on the fence because they just aren't ready to commit, and you have to adjust accordingly.

As names got tossed around, their scouting reports get examined, as do their statistics. Who wrote the report? When did the scout see the player? You can always find numbers that reflect either positively or negatively on a player. Everyone has their own stats they like best, and I am no exception. The key is to use similar measures to compare players, and every team has its own favorite tools. I have been a SABR member for over 30 years and started in an extremely progressive White Sox organization, so I have been using some stats for an extended period. In addition to some of the usual stats, I want to see how a player has performed in his team's home ballpark. Along with the typical hitting measures, I look at pitches per plate appearance, percentage of RBI opportunities converted (a Baseball Prospectus stat I have used for years), and previous performance against elite pitchers in the game. For pitchers, aside from the usual stats, I migrate toward first pitch strike percentage, baserunners per nine innings, groundball/fly ball ratio, and complete breakdowns of each player’s pitch repertoire.

When trying to acquire a player, a team has to know the player's current footprint on the baseball landscape. A player's major-league service time and current contract status are as important to know as his scouting reports, because they dictate the control a club has over the player in the next few years in terms of roster status and rights (arbitration, free agency, 10/5 status), along with the player's impact on the club's budget. Every team has its own method of weighing these factors. Service time travels with a player if he’s traded, and some have certain provisions that everyone internally has to be aware of when evaluating the potential deal. In addition, clubs have to monitor their under-control limit, because you cannot have more than 40 players on the major-league roster (with some exceptions, most notably the 60-day disabled list). That is frequently a topic of discussion in multi-player deals, since teams have to maneuver around their 40-man and sometimes will need to make subsequent moves to make room.

You would be amazed at how that initial contact occurs with another club, and how sometimes it is carefully plotted to get the correct message to the right person. It can come from the owner, the general manager, a top scout, or even floated in a strategically placed comment in the media. From that point, interaction comes in a myriad of ways, from direct calls to e-mails to texts and direct messages. Fresh batteries and a new stack of Post-it notes become a key part of your day at this time of year regardless of what position in the game you hold.

It is humbling to be in the race, trying to add pieces to your big-league team, when your minor-league system does not have the resources to land an intended target. One year, a club reviewed the team I was working for and said, "We don't like any of your players in a deal for our guy." I used that as motivation to improve our minor-league system in the future, but those words stung at the time and in fact proved true, as our lack of attractive minor-league talent prevented us from making any significant deals.

Internally, you go through a lot of conference calls and video chats, getting input from the people whose opinion you value. In addition to the general manager and his top front office staff, the club's top scouts become critical elements. Sometimes your best evaluators include some of your amateur area scouts, and you have to take them off their usual coverage. The scouting director and his top cross-checkers know valuable things about players, both on and off the field, from their amateur days. The trainers and team doctor also become critical, since they give you feedback about the risk involved in adding players with some injury history. I know that having the great Dr. Frank Jobe as a teammate with the Dodgers saved me from making at least one crucial mistake at the deadline.

After that round of internal evaluations, your trade targets then need to be scouted again. This time, it becomes a more specific evaluation, whether you're a buyer or a seller. If you’re looking to add, your best scouts have to see the candidates and have the latest info. It is useful just to see who else is in the ballpark and know your competition. People don’t just happen to be in the same stadium. You network like crazy and try to find out about guys' makeup and their ability to fit into what you are trying to accomplish.

One of the funny aspects about this particular stage is that every scout needs to call the host team for a prime seat at each game. As a result, that team has valuable information, because it really knows who is in on a particular club or player. If that club is a seller, the person who administrates the scout tickets gives the best seats to the team their club believes is the best match. If you're in a poor scouting position, you know you're not in the lead!

Great scouts sometimes operate a little like the CIA. One year, I went to visit a friend whom I had gotten tickets for and ran into one of the game's best evaluators, hidden down the line away from the scouting pack. We exchanged hellos, and later he told me that he did not want anyone to know his club was in attendance. It was a great lesson for me.

Another time, I spotted a great GM at a minor-league game that did not involve his team. Knowing that he wasn't talking with my club about any specific deals, I immediately thought he was closing on a trade with the other organization. Soon afterward, he confided that he was there just to watch one of the managers, as he was considering making changes to his field staff and wanted to get a first-hand look at a candidate.

One of the most difficult jobs within an organization is that of the minor-league director, and that person is a huge part of the process if you want to succeed at the deadline. I was lucky to work with some talented guys in that role. Rotations sometimes have to be plotted out far in advance so that a guy's starting day can coincide with a potential opening in the rotation if a trade works out. Plus, if you are a buyer, those assets you are willing to move to make a deal have to be showcased as prominently as possible, and that is an art in itself.

Early in my career, the late Hall of Fame writer Jerome Holtzman told me that resourceful writers, particularly the beat and national ones, know what almost everybody intends to do, because they are getting so much info flow. He was 100 percent right. As I got more experience, I realized that writers talk with everyone and have a global perspective rather than a myopic one. Whether you like it or not, they find out which players you like and which you don't. It's an amazing process. One year, a writer I truly respect called because he’d heard that I had offered an incredible package for Vladimir Guerrero, and he had it down to the last player in the deal.

Guys get pulled from lineups throughout the year, but when that occurs in the final two weeks before the trade deadline, it becomes news. Speculation follows, most of it faulty, but some of it occasionally dead-on. Pitchers get pulled at just the right time to keep their value at its highest point, and those moves don't just happen. They are discussed before and during the game, and sometimes a guy will play when you least expect him to because he is being showcased.

The most difficult aspect of the trade deadline is that as the GM, you have to focus on both the short-term and long-term state of the franchise. You are the only person with that responsibility. It is numbing at times, because you hear from everyone, and each person has their own agenda.

This can also be a great source of humor. I once got a call from a season-ticket holder who supposedly was really concerned about a potential deal. After a few minutes, I realized that what he was most concerned about was that he was leading his National League-only fantasy league, and the potential deal would involve one of his key guys going to the American League. I wished him the best of luck with his team, but he didn’t reciprocate.

Another time, I was filling my car at a gas station when I was approached by a fellow customer. I had our youngest daughter with me, who was only in second grade at the time. The guy went into a tirade about something he had just heard on talk radio and used words in ways that my little girl had never heard before. I let him rant for a bit and then assured him that what he had heard on the radio was absolutely not going to happen. Suddenly, I had a friend, and he offered to pay for my gas! It's only a game, right?

Major-league managers and their field staff are concerned about now, as well they should be. Here is where the relationship between the general manager and the manager is critical. If they are on the same page, it makes the process easier for all involved. I have been on both sides of the equation. But the big-league manager is in a tough spot, because his focus is on his own major-league team. The field staff does not see the farm system, except for a few games in spring training. Sometimes they cannot understand why a guy in your system is considered untouchable. Here's where interaction with scouts and minor-league staff can make this moment easier, because their frequent input throughout the year keeps the big-league staff informed about why a guy cannot be moved.

With all of this activity taking place at once, things get complicated for everybody, and today's electronic advances have made it even more difficult. Branch Rickey did not have to deal with the constant rumors that today's decision makers have to face on a daily basis. Everyone has relationships with the players involved. If you are with the team, mingling in the clubhouse, traveling, or in batting practice, that can get awkward. Media members have to ask difficult questions and balance their own unique relationships. In addition, traveling is tougher than ever and very expensive, so you have to plan ahead as best you can.

The deadline is an incredibly difficult time for players, who have little to no control over their professional futures. Imagine hearing your name come up in media conversations while you were at work, or in a tweet about a trade. In actuality, that deal might be imminent, or it might have zero chance of coming to fruition. But in baseball, a potential trade means that you might be transferring your entire life to another city the next day and be expected to play. It's even more complicated if the player has a family. In the "real" world, these things just don't happen. For some minor-league prospects, the deadline is the first time the business side of the game truly affects them, because their name is linked to a deal and they suddenly recognize that the club they signed with as an amateur might not be their team for much longer.

Once, near the deadline, a GM went to a big-league game not involving his team to personally scout a starting pitcher who was a critical element in a huge deal being discussed. The poor kid couldn't get out of the first inning, and the GM made a bold statement by leaving the ballpark along with one of his key staff members as the starter was being removed from the game. That departure was noticed by the intended observer—the other GM involved in the negotiation. The deal ended up getting done, but not before the ante was upped by the team whose starter couldn't get the first three outs of the game.

Things can change in an instant. An injury can force a deal to blow up or a club's target to change. A "Breaking News" crawl on the bottom of the TV screen can eliminate one or more of your options. I remember watching a guy being removed early in a game once while I was scouting and seeing him exchanging handshakes from teammates; I knew then that he wasn't coming to my club. An injury to a prospect that you're dangling can force a club out of trade talks. When working on a deal, you'll usually get a call telling you that the team is going in another direction. When Plan A is no longer available and you have fewer options, you have to turn to Plan B or C immediately.

The final few hours before the deadline are unlike anything that I have ever experienced, and the last 45 minutes can be stunningly busy and not for the faint of heart. This situation requires a balancing act, and it’s impressive to see what some people can accomplish under the pressure. Baseball staffs often conduct multiple conversations at once, and the GM is always trying to develop and keep his options open while measuring whether a deal can be consummated. Relationships are key, as one person cannot manage all potential trade partners. Fallback options are critical. Like any negotiation, there comes a time when all the cards are on the table, and everyone has their own way of managing that moment.

Finally, the key is that every trade must be completed in time for the transaction to be submitted and approved by the central office. There are 30 clubs considering multiple deals at the deadline, so your administrative personnel have to be just as strategic in terms of having all of the necessary paperwork and functions completed. That can be a test at crunch time. There are some deals that would have been huge but were never completed because the teams involved ran out of time. 

The End Result
In 1983, I was in the first full year of my career with a White Sox team that was eight games out of first place and five games under the .500 mark. We had expectations of being a playoff contender for the first time in many years. The trade deadline was June 15 at the time, and GM Roland Hemond made a great deal for Seattle second baseman Julio Cruz, who impacted the team so significantly that we went 72-31 the rest of the way to win the West Division by 20 games. Cruz didn't perform as well with our club as he had with the Mariners, but he added incredible energy on both the offensive and defensive sides, and his presence kick-started a team managed by Tony La Russa. It was a wonderful lesson for me to experience this first-hand at a young age, as I was traveling with the team at the time. We won 10 of our next 12 games as the deal changed the club's mind-set. It was a brilliant, outside-the-box move by Hemond, which led to a division title for the first time in over a generation for Chicago baseball fans.

General managers like John Schuerholz or Pat Gillick have made great deals to propel their contending teams to the playoffs or even a World Series. Consider what adding Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff, David Cone, or Doyle Alexander meant to their teams. Now there are more post-season spots than ever before, but you have to win as many as 12 games to earn a World Series title.

Adding a starting pitcher at the deadline is difficult, but frequently lost in the details is how the trade deepens the rotation, pushing some of the starters to a lower notch than where they were before. Often, I hear that a pitcher acquired at the deadline will make only a dozen starts, but in reality, the addition positively affects match-ups for the rest of the season and gives you better depth if you get to the postseason. The September schedule has more off days, and smart pitching coaches can plot a rotation that makes the most of those dates. Adding a pitcher could be huge for a wild card entrant this year, because getting into the League Division Series requires winning a single-game playoff and then possibly starting a five-game series the very next day. Making a trade that leads to a deeper rotation could enable a club to survive that initial five-game series.

A pet peeve of mine is when people rush to judgment on who won a deal. In reality, you cannot review a trade at the time it occurs. A team that gets to the postseason or wins a World Series because of a big contribution from a deadline acquisition likes the deal even more in October. Prospects take time to develop, and the "selling" team can't evaluate its end of the deal immediately. It's fun to talk about transaction winners and losers, but no one really knows which is which, since it sometimes takes years after a deal for its full effects to become known.

There have been some suggestions that the trade deadline should be pushed back by a couple weeks, potentially to August 15. I understand both sides of this debate and feel that asking teams to make a decision on their status on July 31 might be too early, particularly with two post-season spots being added this year. At the end of the 2012 season, we will have a better idea of how it all works. Selfishly, it would have simplified my life a little in the past if the deadline were later. Our oldest daughter, who is now in college, says that she didn’t grasp when she was young that her birthday was a few days before the trade deadline but now understands and appreciates why Dad was on the phone so frequently at her parties.

One year, I spent the final 13 days before the trade deadline scouting in 12 different cities. I was coordinating our overall coverage, and on the morning of August 1, I ended up at an airport with three other scouts whom I had been running into for two weeks at many of the same games. We had a great chat, and although we had been pursuing many of the same players, we let our guards down a bit. One of the scouts uttered something that I will never forget: "It was incredibly fun giving my 100 percent for the last few weeks to get five percent of what we were trying to do accomplished."

His club won the World Series that year, and I called him the day after they hoisted the trophy to remind him of the conversation we had and congratulate him.

Enjoy the deadline, and appreciate what makes it such a unique part of the game. I know I will.

Dan Evans is an author of Baseball Prospectus.